青藏高原及邻区未来地震活动性趋势数值分析          下载免费PDF全文

董培育  石耀霖  程惠红  乔学军 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1155-1169

区域中长期地震危险性数值分析研究,需要对其初始构造应力场有所了解,但目前以及未来一段时期内仍无法直接观测到深部孕震层区域的应力场状况.本文首先基于岩石库仑-摩尔破裂准则,利用青藏高原及邻区百年历史范围内的强震信息,来反演估算该区域的初始应力场.然后,考虑区域构造应力加载及强震造成的应力扰动共同作用,重现了历史强震的发展过程.然而对于初始应力场的反演估算,本文仅能给出区域其上下限的极限值,并不能唯一确定.因此,采用Monte Carlo随机法,进行大量独立的随机试验计算,生成数千种有差异的区域初始应力场模型,且保证每种模型都能令历史强震有序发生,但未来应力场演化过程不尽相同.最后,将数千种模型在未来时间段内的危险性预测结果集成为数理统计结果,据此给出了区域未来的地震危险性概率分布图.初步结果显示未来强震危险性概率较高地区集中在巴颜喀拉块体边界及鲜水河断裂带地区.  相似文献   

2018年9月8日墨江地震及周边地区构造应力场特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

李泽潇  万永革  崔华伟  李振月  胡晓辉  黄骥超  靳志同 《地球物理学报》2020,63(4):1431-1443

2018年9月8日,云南省墨江县发生MS5.9地震并伴随一系列余震,探究该地震周围的应力场对于理解该地震的发生机制和后续地震的发展趋势具有着重要的参考意义.本研究收集了震源及其邻区中前人研究和Global CMT所给出的震源机制资料,对该地区进行了构造应力场反演,并同时利用反演得到的应力张量模拟墨江地区的震源机制解表现.结果表明:(1)在应力轴整体分布上,自西向东σ1轴(压轴)从NNE-SSW向逐渐转向NNW-SSE向,σ3轴(张轴)从WWN-EES向逐渐转向WWS-EEN向,张轴呈弧形分布,压轴呈放射状分布.(2)在应力轴倾伏角上,研究区域内的压应力轴和张应力轴倾伏角都比较小,即两轴均接近水平.(3)R值分布大体是在东南部相较于西北部大,结合当地地质背景分析得到,物质逃逸自西北向东南呈逐渐变缓的趋势.(4)利用反演得到的应力张量和应力状态计算墨江地震震源区的相对剪应力和相对正应力大小.由此推测,墨江地震恰好发生在相对剪切应力值和相对正应力正值最大的节面上.从而可以确定墨江地震的发震节面的基本参数:走向216.32°,倾角86.91°,滑动角0.27°,相对剪应力值0.9,相对正应力值0.3.本研究为此次墨江地震的发震背景和地震动力学研究提供了基础性资料.  相似文献   

黄土山区煤层群分层开采地表位移规律分析     

沈宇恒 《北京测绘》2020,(4):490-494

为了研究黄土山区地形对煤层群开采地表位移的影响,以榆林某矿为地质原型,利用数值软件模拟地表为近水平、正坡、负坡、凸面和凹面五种地形条件下煤层群开采。结果表明:黄土山区地形的变化,对煤层群开采顶板垂直应力影响不明显,对地表位移影响较大;单向坡开采,斜坡滑移引起的下沉量在坡顶与开采沉陷量形成“叠加”,在坡底形成“抵消”;在组合坡中,煤层群开采地表位移量相差很大,说明在变坡点附近地表位移较为复杂。  相似文献   

动态应力触发研究进展     

陈昊  冀战波  王琼  苏金波 《中国地震》2020,36(3):442-459

本文从库仑破裂应力与动态应力触发原理、观测事实与研究现状以及存在的问题与展望等3个方面介绍了动态应力触发的研究进展。其中,在主震对余震活动、强震对后续远场地震活动、不同破裂类型的地震之间及强震对火山(泥火山)的动态应力触发作用、一次大地震中子事件之间的动态应力触发关系以及动态应力触发的时间延迟等方面进行了详细讨论。分析认为,动态应力触发理论在解释震后余震分布、远程触发以及对火山触发性喷发等方面得到了较好的结果;动态应力触发可能会受断层破裂方式和方向的影响;大地震中子事件之间的动态应力触发关系对震源研究有重要意义;动态应力触发现象普遍存在时间延迟。  相似文献   

郯庐断裂带肥东北部文集地区构造岩类型与构造变形分析     

袁芳  宋传中  LIN ShouF  石永红  李加好  李振伟  王微  王阳阳 《岩石学报》2020,36(2):601-620

位于郯庐断裂带中南部的肥东地区是郯庐断裂带内韧性剪切带出露的主体区域之一。本文从肥东北部文集地区的构造岩组成及其变形入手,通过详细的野外观测、室内显微构造变形分析来确定该地区构造变形的几何学形态及其涡度、有限应变、分维度、差异应力、应变速率等参数。研究区主要出露角闪岩相肥东变质杂岩,构造岩以糜棱岩和糜棱岩化片麻岩为主,岩石变形强烈。根据极摩尔圆法得到的运动学涡度值为0.729~0.870,指示区域内的韧性剪切活动以简单剪切为主。几何学形态上,肥东北部文集地区构造整体呈一背形展出,其枢纽走向NE-SW,轴面倾向SE,物质及变形强度等方面均表现出一定的规律和对称性。研究区内动态重结晶石英颗粒边界具有统计学上的自相似性,其分维值D在1.143~1.208之间,且自背形核部向两翼,颗粒粒径增大,分维值减小。差异应力Δσ介于17.86~55.18MPa之间,应变速率ε值在1.960×10^-13~7.330×10^-12s^-1之间,且背形核部差异应力和应变速率较两翼大,呈近似对称性分布。通过对比以上构造参数可以发现,区内差异应力和应变速率表现出一定的正相关性,自核部向两翼二者均呈减小趋势;动态重结晶石英颗粒则与应变速率呈负相关性,即核部颗粒细小、两翼增大。本文从几何学、运动学以及显微构造变形分析等方面对该区构造变形展开精细化研究,借此来分析肥东北部地区郯庐断裂带的构造形态和运动学特征,这对进一步认识郯庐断裂带的演化过程及构造模型的建立有着重要的意义。  相似文献   

An extended finite volume method and fixed-stress approach for modeling fluid injection–induced tensile opening in fractured reservoirs     

Rajdeep Deb  Patrick Jenny 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(8):1128-1144

Fluid injection–induced tensile opening is modeled using an extended finite volume method (XFVM). An embedded fracture strategy is used for the flow problem, that is, the fractures are discretized using finite volume segments without resolving the grid around them. Further, the discontinuities across fractures are modeled using special basis functions. The fracture openings due to enhanced fluid pressure and the associated shear slip due to traction free boundary condition on the fracture segments are both modeled using these special discontinuity basis functions. Mass transfer between fractures and matrix is modeled using the pressure difference. The enhancement of fracture storativity due to tensile opening leads to stronger coupling between flow and mechanics. An iterative scheme relying on the fixed-stress approach for fractures, which conserves the stress dependent terms over each iteration of the flow problem, has been introduced. Tensile opening has been simulated for single fractures embedded in two- and three-dimensional matrices. The convergence criterion for sequentially implicit fixed-stress scheme for fractures embedded in elastic media is established and has been validated numerically. Further, for 2D simulations, the effect of the matrix permeability for fracture propagation due to tensile opening has been studied.  相似文献   

Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.  相似文献   

A finite element approach for predicting the full resistance profile of a spudcan deeply penetrating in dense sand overlying clay     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

This paper presents a finite element approach to calculate the full resistance profile of a spudcan deeply penetrating in dense sand overlying clay, in which a potential for an installing spudcan to experience a sudden uncontrolled punch-through failure exists. A modified Mohr-Coulomb model characterized by incorporating a four-phase variation of the mobilized strength and dilation parameters with an equivalent accumulated plastic strain is developed and tested for the overlying dense silica sand. An extended Tresca model is used for the strain softening of the underlying clay. A series of large deformation finite-element (LDFE) analyses are carried out, varying the strength and dilation parameters as well as the spudcan geometries. A fairly good performance of the present approach is verified by validating against groups of centrifuge tests data, allowing the numerical study to be extended parametrically. The four-phase variation of the mobilized strength and dilation parameters involved in the progressive failure of the upper dense sand is parametrically studied and extended to cover the range of sand relative densities that are of practical interest. Additionally, comparisons with the typical existing LDFE analyses using both simple and sophisticated constitutive models are carried out. It shows that the present approach performs fairly well to calculate the full resistance profile of a spudcan deeply penetration in both thin and thick dense sand overlying clay, especially the peak and post-peak resistance, within around 5% of the corresponding centrifuge tests results.  相似文献   

基于新型高频声学多普勒流速剖面仪的河口近底部边界层观测初探     

兰庭飞  吴昊  唐杰平  李占海  汪亚平 《海洋通报》2019,38(6):640-649

河口物质输运、能量交换与底边界层内的水动力过程密切相关,底边界层参数(如切应力、拖曳系数)的确定至关重要。挪威Nortek公司生产的新型声学多普勒流速剖面仪AD2CP相比传统ADCP具有高频、低噪的优点,可用于高频(16Hz)流速剖面观测,而被广泛应用于底边界层观测的ADV只能测量单点高频流速。本文采用AD2CP在长江口南槽最大浑浊带区域进行座底式观测,并与同步近底部三脚架上ADV的观测结果进行对比。结果表明,使用AD2CP测得的近底部平均流速与ADV的测量结果吻合良好;使用惯性耗散法计算了底切应力,基于ADV的单点高频流速数据计算结果为2.16×10~(-2)～5.69×10~(-1)N/m~2,基于AD2CP的结果为2.09×10~(-2)～4.26×10~(-1)N/m~2,二者范围大致相当。在此基础上,基于AD2CP数据计算出摩阻流速为4.55×10~(-3)～2.06×10~(-2)m/s、底拖曳系数范围为1.84×10~(-4)～2.49×10~(-3),与ADV的计算结果基本一致。此外,由于AD2CP可以获得高频的流速剖面数据,优于单点ADV,具备观测近底部边界层参数和边界层内湍流剖面的潜力。  相似文献   

A stochastic method for the prediction of icebreaker bow extreme stresses     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

It is well established that the ship-ice interaction process is quite complex and associated ice loads on the icebreaker hull is a stochastic process. Obviously, novel accurate statistical methods and models should be developed and applied to estimate extreme bow stresses.This paper studies icebreaker bow stresses based on measured distribution of ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean on the way to and from the North Pole. Since the vessel route was carefully selected searching for easier ice conditions, the Arctic Ocean crossing was not a straight linear but a meandering path. Thus, the specific ship route data was biased with respect to general ice statistics in the region, but true with respect to the route specific ice data encountered by a ship navigating in that region. Therefore the route specific ice thickness data is directly needed for ship design and navigation analysis. It is assumed that captains are competent and knowledgeable, and therefore will select a route that provides the most favourable ice conditions.This paper contributes to study of the newest Chinese self-designed polar icebreaker, serving the purpose of enhancing icebreaker operational reliability. Finite Element Method software package ANSYS/LS-DYNA has been employed to simulate bow stress pattern for a particular icebreaker operating in the Arctic Ocean. Extreme bow stresses were estimated using Naess-Gaidai method. The latter is a first application of Naess-Gaidai method to a distribution with lower bound. Thus this paper aims at introducing an efficient method of estimating route-specific icebreaker extreme bow stresses.  相似文献